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The Journal of Neuroscience, May 11, 2005, 25(19):4806-4812; doi:10.1523/JNEUROSCI.0642-05.2005

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Behavioral/Systems/Cognitive
Distributed Neural Representation of Expected Value

Brian Knutson,1 Jonathan Taylor,2 Matthew Kaufman,1 Richard Peterson,1 and Gary Glover3

Departments of 1Psychology, 2Statistics, and 3Radiology, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305

Anticipated reward magnitude and probability comprise dual components of expected value (EV), a cornerstone of economic and psychological theory. However, the neural mechanisms that compute EV have not been characterized. Using event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging, we examined neural activation as subjects anticipated monetary gains and losses that varied in magnitude and probability. Group analyses indicated that, although the subcortical nucleus accumbens (NAcc) activated proportional to anticipated gain magnitude, the cortical mesial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) additionally activated according to anticipated gain probability. Individual difference analyses indicated that, although NAcc activation correlated with self-reported positive arousal, MPFC activation correlated with probability estimates. These findings suggest that mesolimbic brain regions support the computation of EV in an ascending and distributed manner: whereas subcortical regions represent an affective component, cortical regions also represent a probabilistic component, and, furthermore, may integrate the two.

Key words: gain; loss; reward; probability; monetary; striatum; accumbens; mesial prefrontal cortex; fMRI; human


Received Sep 28, 2004; revised March 25, 2005; accepted April 9, 2005.




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