Probability of winning | Possible gains | Possible losses | Expected value |
---|---|---|---|
High (0.60) | Large (70) | Large (70) | 14 |
Small (30) | 30 | ||
Small (30) | Large (70) | −10 | |
Small (30)* | 6* | ||
Low (0.40) | Large (70) | Large (70) | −14 |
Small (30) | 10 | ||
Small (30) | Large (70) | −30 | |
Small (30)* | −6* |
↵a“Expected values” for the “experimental” gambles equal the sums of gains and losses, weighted by their probabilities of occurrence (Kahneman and Tversky, 2000), varying between −30 and 30, with a mean of 0.
↵*“Experimental” gambles with low positive (6) or low negative (−6) expected values, in which proportionate choice departs from linear pattern.