Figure 7. Signal detection theory simulations of the relationship between changes in perceptual and metacognitive sensitivity. A, Basic SDT model. In a series of SDT simulations closely matching the properties of Experiments 1–4, changes in d′ and meta-d′ across block half are strongly positively related. Displayed is a contour plot based on the two-dimensional histogram of Δmeta-d′ versus Δd′ for all simulated subjects in all simulated experiments. The white line is the line of best fit to simulated data; gray dashed lines are lines of best fit from data in Experiments 1–4. B, SDT model with aPFC adjustment. We adjusted the outcomes of the initial SDT simulation so as to conform to the empirically observed relationships between aPFC volume, Δd′, and meta-d1′/d1′ in Experiment 2 (see Materials and Methods for details). This substantially weakened the relationship between Δd′ and Δmeta-d′ in the simulated data, as demonstrated by a more circular contour plot and smaller slope for the line of best fit. C, Distributions of correlation coefficients for Δd′ and Δmeta-d′. Across 2000 simulated experiments, the basic SDT model yielded correlation values consistently higher than those observed in Experiments 1–4 (one-tailed p values of 0.002, 0.026, 0.001, and 0.004). The adjusted model incorporating the aPFC findings from Experiment 2 yielded a distribution of correlations more closely in line with the data (one-tailed p values of 0.067, 0.383, 0.043, and 0.161).